Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4797
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4797 · HOU → JAX
departs 8:35 PM CT · arrives 11:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
8pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.61 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.