Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4822
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4822 · STL → DTW
departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 10:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 25%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from STL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at STL that day
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.