Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4822
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4822 · STL → DTW
departs 8:45 PM CT · arrives 11:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.