Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4849
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4849 · BWI → GRR
departs 12:25 PM ET · arrives 2:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↓
GRR usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.16 in
GRR (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.