Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4860
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4860 · JAX → AUS
departs 1:15 PM ET · arrives 2:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 58%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
This flight has been late 51% of the time recently
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.38 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.37 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.