Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4860
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4860 · JAX → AUS
departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 25%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
This flight has been late 51% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.42 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.