Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4930 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4930 · SAN → BOS

departs 2:35 PM PT · arrives 11:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 50% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4930 · SAN → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?