Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4930
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
WN 4930 · SAN → BOS
departs 2:45 PM PT · arrives 11:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 42%
Fri 10/2 38%
Sat 10/3 31%
Sun 10/4 49%
Mon 10/5 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.