Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4930
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 4930 · SAN → BOS
departs 2:45 PM PT · arrives 11:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 33%
Thu 10/1 42%
Fri 10/2 38%
Sat 10/3 31%
Sun 10/4 49%
Mon 10/5 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.