Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4953
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4953 · OAK → SNA
departs 8:30 PM PT · arrives 10:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 23%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from OAK are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at OAK that day
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SNA that day
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.