Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4977
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4977 · OAK → BUR
departs 5:00 PM PT · arrives 6:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 35%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at OAK that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.