Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4985
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4985 · SMF → SEA
departs 9:55 PM PT · arrives 11:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 23%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.