Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4985
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4985 · SMF → SEA
departs 9:15 PM PT · arrives 11:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.