Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 541
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 541 · BNA → JAX
departs 10:05 AM CT · arrives 12:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 5%
Thu 10/8 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,433 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.04 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 3.55 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.