Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 541
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 541 · BNA → JAX
departs 10:05 AM CT · arrives 12:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 5%
Thu 10/8 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 667 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 11,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 667 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.