Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 580
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 580 · BNA → MEM
departs 10:50 PM CT · arrives 11:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 42%
Mon 10/5 29%
Wed 10/7 20%
Thu 10/8 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
55%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
55%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.1d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MEM that day
↑
10pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,433 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.44 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 2.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.