Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 580
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 580 · BNA → MEM
departs 9:50 PM CT · arrives 11:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 53%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 29%
Thu 10/8 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 48% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.