Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 590
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 590 · OAK → SBA
departs 6:00 PM PT · arrives 7:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Fridays in October are usually busier than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at SBA that day
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at OAK that day
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
SBA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.