Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 686 · BNA → TPA
departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 9:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 38%
Mon 10/5 30%
Thu 10/8 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 57% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
6pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.