Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 686 · BNA → TPA
departs 4:55 PM CT · arrives 7:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 67%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 30%
Thu 10/8 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
This flight has been late 50% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.