Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 946
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 946 · AUS → ELP
departs 3:10 PM CT · arrives 3:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 37%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 25%
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−21 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −21 pts in 24h
−21 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
3pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.38 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.