Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 946
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 946 · AUS → ELP
departs 2:45 PM CT · arrives 3:20 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.13 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.