Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 978
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 978 · LAS → SMF
departs 7:20 PM PT · arrives 9:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 20%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.