Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 978 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

WN 978 · LAS → BUF

departs 10:00 AM PT · arrives 5:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into BUF at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 978 · LAS → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?