Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 978
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 978 · LAS → SMF
departs 7:20 PM PT · arrives 9:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 33%
Sat 10/3 20%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.