Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3415 · RIC → EWR
departs 2:38 PM ET · arrives 4:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 22%
Thu 10/8 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.