Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3417 · EWR → CVG
departs 8:24 AM ET · arrives 10:36 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at CVG that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.61 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.