Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 3417 · EWR → CVG
departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 10:42 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,633 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.