Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3433
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3433 · CLE → IAD
departs 7:55 PM ET · arrives 9:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
CLE usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.56 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.47 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.