Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3433
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3433 · CLE → IAD
departs 7:55 PM ET · arrives 9:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.9 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.