Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Tomorrow
YX 3438 · SDF → IAD
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:35 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 3%
Fri 10/2
Sat 10/3 4%
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 4%
Tue 10/6 3%
Wed 10/7 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.3d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SDF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.92 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.