Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 3438 · SDF → IAD
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:35 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 3%
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 4%
Tue 10/6 3%
Wed 10/7 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.2 in of rain forecast at IAD that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SDF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 967 ft Visibility 5.33333 mi Precip 0.02 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,633 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.