Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3439
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3439 · EWR → ORF
departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 9:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
16%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.