Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3454 LANDED 8:36 PM CT, ~18 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

YX 3454 · EWR → BNA

took off 7:31 PM ET · landed 8:36 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

BNA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3454 · EWR → BNA

Odds over time