Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3469
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 3469 · IND → EWR
departs 3:50 PM ET · arrives 6:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+21 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
16%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.