Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 3476 · EWR → BUF
departs 9:18 PM ET · arrives 10:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 45%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at EWR that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.