Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3476 · RIC → EWR
departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 8:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 48%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 30%
Thu 10/8 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
32%
Cancelled
23%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
23%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.