Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3476 · RIC → EWR
departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 8:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 55%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 30%
Thu 10/8 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
18%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
18%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.92 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.