Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3478
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3478 · IND → EWR
departs 12:54 PM ET · arrives 3:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.42 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.