Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3478
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3478 · IND → EWR
departs 12:54 PM ET · arrives 3:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 15%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.