Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3481
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3481 · EWR → CMH
departs 6:55 PM ET · arrives 8:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
20%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
CMH usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.