Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3481
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 3481 · EWR → CMH
departs 6:55 PM ET · arrives 8:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.