Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3492
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 3492 · EWR → CMH
departs 2:15 PM ET · arrives 4:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CMH that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
CMH usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.