Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3508
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 3508 · ORF → EWR
departs 10:17 AM ET · arrives 11:59 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 22%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
ORF is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.