Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3512
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 3512 · EWR → SDF
departs 8:25 PM ET · arrives 10:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 16%
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.