Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 3518 · GSP → EWR
departs 7:49 PM ET · arrives 9:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 37%
Mon 10/5 33%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
71%
chance · ±0 pts
+24 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
71%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 71% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
71%
Yes 71%
No 29%
Leave GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
GSP (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.