Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3518 · GSP → EWR
departs 7:49 PM ET · arrives 9:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 53%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 28%
Wed 10/7 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
11%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
GSP (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.74 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.