Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3523 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

YX 3523 · ORD → RIC

departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 5:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into RIC at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.17 in

RIC (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3523 · ORD → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?