Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3523
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 3523 · ORD → RIC
departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 5:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at RIC that day
↑
2pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into RIC at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RIC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.