Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3527
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3527 · CVG → EWR
departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 8:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
CVG usually runs smoothly
↓
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.35 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.